Winners and Losers GOP Edition Take 2

For those of you who just can’t wait until the next Republican Presidential debate in November, here is a little taste to get you through.

Winners/Losers GOP Edition

Well this list will change weekly no doubt but here is how things stand currently.

Winners

Mitt Romney:  Mitt has picked up critical endorsements from some high level folks.  Basically the whole of the republican party in Oklahoma has endorsed Mitt.  He also picked up the endorsements from the majority of Florida’s state legislature and Ohio’s state legislature.  Nevada Congressman Mark Amodei, as well as former Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert, (R) MA are also supporting Mitt.  That’s a lot of big time endorsements, especially in Florida and Ohio.  Those are huge states and figure prominently in the primary and general election.

Mitt raised 14 million in the third quarter.  Also huge.  His position in the polls has not changed.  The rest of the field just ebbs and flows around Mitt’s number which has been steady at 24%.

Herman Cain:  Herm’s only win right now is his position in the polls.  He has jumped to the top of the heap, sitting around 25%.  He has made a slew of missteps but it’s hard to put him in the loser category when he is currently leading the field in polling.

In addition to flip flopping on abortion, well not really flip flopping, he currently holds both sides of the argument as his position.  The Herminator maintains that he is pro-life and believes in life at conception but does not believe the government has the right to tell a woman she can’t have an abortion. He believes that decision should be left to the family.  That is essentially the pro-choice platform. Watch the video and decide for yourself.  Cain Interview with John Stossel

Herm’s other problem – money.  He may be leading the polls, but he only reported 2.8 million for the third quarter.  I say reported and not raised because 175,000 of that 2.8 mil was a personal loan from Cain’s own bank account to himself.  Polls are great but money runs campaigns.  If he doesn’t have the cash to pay staff or visit the early primary states he won’t get the votes, plain and simple folks.

Newt Gingrich:  Newt!  Moving up in the polls, personal fortune to run on his own if he needs to, and now thanks to Perry’s decision to skip the debates from now on(see below), Newt will be in the top three with Mitt and Herm.  He’s smarter than those two he just needs to find a way to communicate that with out looking like a jerk-weed.  (Keep hope alive Rachel!)

Losers

Rick Perry:  Has slid to third, fourth and even fifth in some polls taken in Iowa and New Hampshire.  He is currently tied for fifth with Michelle Bachman in Iowa.  That’s all kinds of ugly.

He has decided that he’s no good at debates therefore they must be stupid and he won’t be involved in anything that is stupid.  He’ll be in the next debate on November 9th and then he’ll decide if he’ll go to any more.  So the public scrutiny is Perry’s not ready for prime time and he’ll prove that fact by not appearing in prime time any more.  Smooth Rick, very smooth.

He also re-opened the birther issue this week.  In an interview he said or implied that we have not seen the President’s real birth certificate.  Not really that big of a deal, except it over shadowed his much hyped economics plan he released the next day.  Besides the fact he inadvertently aligned himself with some real fringe elements of the conservative movement it also showed he has no command of the news cycle.  His econ plan needed to dominate the news, it didn’t.  Instead all he got were questions about the President.  He then complained this is just a big distraction and refused to answer as if it was the media and not him who opened this can of worms.  Not good.

He then compounded that mistake by retracting or “walking back” his birther statements saying he was only joking.  Several big time conservatives like Karl Rove and Governor Haley Barbour of Mississippi publicly told Perry and the rest of the field  to knock it off with the fringe non-sense and hit the President on his failed policies.  It was after those public rebukes that Perry recanted.

So the folks that agree with the birther movement now think he’s a flip flopper and those that didn’t think he has gone looney.  He may have just gone back to being the governor of Texas.  His one positive step – raking in the cash.  He raised 17 million plus in the third quarter.  That will keep you in a campaign long after your momentum dies.

Michelle Bachman:  I mention her for this reason, she made some news: all bad.  Her entire paid staff in New Hampshire quit.  She mailed in her application to the New Hampshire ballot instead of showing up in person, which is tradition.  All the other candidates came in person, including Rick Santorum, who must have rode his bike from Pennsylvania because he has not two nickels to rub together.

Her fund raising also made news.  She raised a surprising 4.1 million.  The bad news, she spent 6 million.  Probably why her staff quit – they never got paid.  So much for her criticisms of the President for spending more than the government takes in.

Trailing a distant 5th in Iowa, the only state where she is really campaigning and her home state, you can color her finished.

Rest of the Field:  Ron Paul, John Huntsman, Rick Santorum, Buddy Roemer, Gary Johnson, – It’s over fellas, pack your crap and go home.  Well, you don’t have to go home but you gotta get outta here.

Next week – actual issues breakdown on each candidate.  Where they stand and what that may mean to you.

Sources
Primary Poll Numbers
3rd qtr fund raising

This entry was posted in Diaries.