GOP Primary: It’s still going, and going, and going….

May8

For those of you still keeping up with the GOP Primary race there is an election tonight. The good citizens of Indiana, North Carolina and West Virginia get their chance tonight.

Shouldn’t be much excitement in the main event. Governor Romney should sweep all three states. With 132 delegates at stake the Governor can run his total to 989 total delegates. That leaves him only 155 delegates shy of final victory. Or does it? More on that in a second. But first there are some games with-in the game tonight that should make for interesting news stories tomorrow morning.

First, in Indiana, Republican Senator Richard Lugar, his friends call him Dick although at the moment it appears he has no friends, is about to lose a primary challenge to the state treasurer. In the ongoing quest by the Republican party to cleanse itself of all those deemed not conservative enough by the Tea Party, Senator Lugar is about to be unseated by little known Richard Murdock, after 35 years in the Senate. Lugar was the Mayor of Indianapolis from 1968 to 1976 before winning his current Senate seat in 1977. He was once known as the George Washington of Indiana.

The big issue that felled Lugar and so angered the Tea Party; Lugar had no idea that his residence was listed as Washington DC, and had less than a clue as to where the DMV sends his mail. He was painted as a DC insider and that was that. Yes, clearly these are the important issue of the day in Indiana. You think there was more to it than that, google it and find me the issue that separates Lugar from Murdock other than this silly business of residence. Even Murdock admits he has been voting for Lugar for years.

On to North Carolina. A gay marriage ban is up for vote by the people of the Tar Heel State. Actually the amendment would not ban gay marriage directly but would define marriage and a union between a man and a women and cement it as law in the state’s constitution. So by implication it bans same-sex marriage. This is much bigger than Lugar getting busted by his own party in Indiana. There are a lot of polls out there that say the American public is ok with gay marriage. Still other polls show that most don’t care one way or the other. So you have to believe the numbers showing favor over against might be misleading. Not caring about something is not the same as being for something. Also, the gay marriage movement has been gaining steam since 2009. This might be a big setback for those that favor gay marriage. Count me among those who care not, one way or the other.

While all this is going on, Governor Romney might have a little problem on his hands. That problem is the Keebler elf, otherwise known as Congressman Ron Paul from Texas. Way back when I tried to define unbound and bound delegates, county caucuses versus state conventions. Read some of those here for a refresher: Unbound Delegates Washington State Caucus

Well it turns out Paul and his campaign are taking advantage of the caucus rules and have been winning the unbound delegates that Romney won during the initial caucus. How has he been doing that? His camp has been going to the state conventions and getting their delegates elected to the national convention where they will likely vote for Romney when the roll is called.

For example, Governor Romney won the Nevada Caucus, taking 14 delegates to Newts, Santorum’s 3 and Paul’s 2. However at the Nevada state convention 22 of the 25 delegates are Paul supporters. Paul realized that the candidates don’t normally take part in the state conventions so he sent his boys to each one and they got elected to fill the delegate positions. In the states where the delegates are not bound to vote for the initial caucus winner. So that means at the national convention when Nevada is called, it is likely the if not guaranteed, most of the delegates will vote for Paul. This situation is occurring in several of the states that held a caucus instead of a straight up primary election. Paul can’t win the nomination this way but mathematically he could keep Romney from winning the nomination on the first roll call at the national convention.

This is more than likely a play by Paul for more influence and personal participation at the national convention and possibly in a Romney White House. Stay tuned, it could get interesting.

Man I love that guy.

Election results late tonight cause, you know, it’s the silly central time zone.

GOP Primary: The Event Horizon

Apr24

Can you feel it? We are getting close. Event Horizon is a term related to relativity, describing the boundary by which an outside observer can no longer be affected by events through space and time. In other words, it’s the point of no return. Tonight we reached the event horizon of the republican primary election. Governor Romney can’t officially win the nomination of his party until the Texas primary on May 29th at the earliest, but by sweeping the five states that voted tonight, he will no longer be affected by the Newts and Ron Pauls of the political world. The republican party is at it’s event horizon, their point of no return, with Governor Romney as their nominee.

Now as we have seen over the past few weeks, there could always be a Columbian hooker in the closet, as in the case of the Secret Service, or a pregnant mistress and violation of campaign finance law, as in the case of former 08 candidate John Edwards. If any of that were to happen that would of course change the game. In this case I think the republicans are safe. This is Governor Romney’s second go round. You would think any issue would have come up by now, but hey you never know.

Just FYI; John Edwards could get 30 years in prison for what he has been accused of. The trial started today and the first witness, one of Edwards’ closest aides during his failed Presidential run, put Edwards squarely under the bus. The guy had receipts, e-mails, cashed checks, the works. Johnny Haircut might be in a pickle on this caper.

Anyway, Connecticut, Rhode Island, New York, Pennsylvania, and Delaware voted tonight. Governor Romney swept all 5 states. His lowest percentage was in Delaware, where he got 56% of the vote. There were 231 delegates available tonight and Gov. Romney won them all. His total now stands at 801 delegates. He needs only 343 more to win the nomination. He will do that easily. There will be no floor fight at the convention.

Of course Newt finished last in every race but Delaware, coming in 2nd, some 3o percentage points behind Gov. Romney. Naturally he gave a speech in North Carolina tonight. Why North Carolina, well the Tar Heel state votes in the next primary on Tuesday, May 8th. So you know what that means, Newt is staying in. He claims he’ll reevaluate, but he said that about Delaware, and he got shellacked in Delaware. He may just to drop out tomorrow, when he has the press all to himself. He may just like having his Secret Service detail, you know the tax payer funded, heavily armed detail.

Paul finished 2nd in every race but Delaware. He took 3rd behind Newt. Interesting to note that Paul did not campaign in any of the states that voted tonight and he still beat Newt by sizable margins in 4 of the 5 states. He appears to be hanging on for a sprint to the convention, again in all likelihood to get some more time for his Libertarian message.

Next primary is May 8th. North Carolina, West Virginia, and Indiana are up. Should be another 132 delegates in Governor Romney’s column.

We have another dead period as we wait the two weeks for the May 8th vote. What will we find out next. Will it be another dog meat buffet scandal, illegal immigrant hedge trimmers, fancy vacations, or an oldy but a goody, the birth certificate conundrum?

Rest assured, if it’s utterly ridiculous, heinously stupid, and completely manufactured, Frank’s Place will be all over it.

GOP Primary: The point of no return… maybe

Apr24

This is it. Possibly. Tonight’s the night. I think.

This should be the final step for Governor Romney. He is running basically unopposed now and while he can’t technically win the nomination tonight, that could come in Texas on May 29th at the earliest, he can effectively put the nomination away by sweeping the five northeastern states voting tonight. If he can’t do that, the doubts that have been finding a voice the past three weeks may get louder.

The governor has already shifted to hammering the President, although he made that move after the Florida primary. The big difference this time; the White House has shifted to hammering Romney, clearly believing he is the man. The only person who doesn’t believe it is Newt, and a lot of the electorate.

Chuck Todd, NBC’s political director called it way back in August of 2011. The Republican base may not fall in love with Mitt Romney but they need to fall in LIKE with him. Still not sure the electorate is in like with Mitt Romney. Tonight will go a long way to settling that down.

In Newt’s case his ego just won’t let him quit. His debt on the other hand… Currently the Gingrich campaign is over 6 million in debt and that number is rising. For some reason Newt and Calista have refused to accept they are the fringe campaign. Both still use a private jet for travel, and Calista still maintains a personal body guard service, even though she has a secret service agent assigned to her. Speaking of the US Secret Service, guess which candidate who is against frivolous government spending still demands a secret service detail, costing the tax payer some serious gitas (money). Newt and Calista will have that detail until he drops from the race; something he say’s he’s not willing to do until the convention.

However, because of the mounting debt there has been rumblings that Newt may pull the cord after the Delaware primary. Delaware? That’s his last stand according to his campaign. Not really sure what a portion of 17 delegates will do for a campaign that’s over 500 delegates behind and 6 mil in debt but hey what do I know, he’s the PhD.

Don’t Look Now…..

Remember all those dumb little non-binding delegates from all those dumb little caucuses in the mid-west? Well, they have been conducting their respective state conventions and guess who’s been winning a lot of those un-bound delegates? If you guessed Congressman Ron Paul, take 10 dollars out of petty cash. The Paul campaign has 2+ million in surplus cash, no debt, no on coming debt. He’s not traveling much, speaking at local events in his districts or at colleges where the school puts up the fee. In other words it turns out Ron Paul practices what he preaches. It has put him in good position for …

Guess what, Ron Paul may survive to the convention. He can’t win it but he’ll finish second in overall delegates which would be a huge feat. He’ll probably be offered a speech in close to prime time network coverage at the convention; in the dinner hour most likely, and that’s the victory Paul is looking for. He knows he can’t win, but if he can keep getting his message out there through the remainder of this election, that will be victory enough.

All five states are in the correct time zone, so polls close anywhere from 7 to 8pm eastern. Check back for results after 8.

Oh and any polls you see in April have absolutely no bearing in November. Romney has drawn even with the President, the President trails Romney, it will be all over the map. The only poll that matters now is the one you’re standing in on Tuesday, November 6th.